As the final four months of the year begin, markets are showing signs of what the hosts of DH Unplugged call an 'elephanty' disposition—large, lumbering, and prone to sudden movements. In Episode 816, titled 'Strikes, Spikes, Hikes,' Andrew Horowitz and John C. Dvorak dissect a September landscape marked by renewed U.S. bombing of Iran, a sharp spike in crude oil, and rising bond yields that are sending ripples through equities and beyond.
The most immediate concern is crude oil, which has surged roughly 13% in two weeks to approximately $91.80 per barrel. Diesel crack spreads are flashing inflation warnings, a signal that energy costs could feed into broader price pressures. This comes at a time when the Federal Reserve is already walking a tightrope between political pressure and a labor market showing signs of wobble. The hosts frame this as a classic September volatility setup, but with an added layer of eroding institutional trust.
Corporate earnings are painting a mixed picture. Dell Technologies provided a bright spot with blowout guidance, projecting fiscal 2027 EPS near $25.50 versus $18.99 previously, fueled by a 40% share of the data center market. Meanwhile, Nvidia is reportedly in pursuit of Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, a deal that has sparked talk of a fallout between Jensen Huang and Sam Altman. On the downside, Dick's Sporting Goods tumbled roughly 30% as Foot Locker's comparable sales fell 3.6%. And Target faced a backlash over a Halloween clown costume, a reminder that brand management remains a minefield in the age of social media.
The hosts' skepticism is most palpable when discussing the administration's economic messaging. 'The administration is the boy who cried wolf right now,' Horowitz said, adding that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent 'has really gotten a little bit crazed trying to manipulate the markets.' Dvorak connected these concerns to bond yields and the dollar, arguing that currencies, equities, and private valuations all rest on trust. 'It's a series of very large trust factors,' he said, warning that tariff escalation reminiscent of Smoot-Hawley would signal a loss of confidence in American competitiveness.
The episode also delved into government equity stakes in Intel, MP Materials, and Trilogy Metals, with a lawsuit challenging the Intel arrangement. Horowitz, who disclosed a personal short position in Intel, questioned why Washington gets discounted shares that retail investors never see. Dvorak contrasted the U.S. approach with China's state-owned enterprise model and highlighted GLM 5.3 Flash from Chinese lab Z.ai, reportedly trained without a single Nvidia chip. President Trump's threat that Iran will be 'totally wiped out as a country' if it retaliates again added geopolitical fuel to the fire.
With Friday's August payrolls, ADP, JOLTS, and ISM data on tap, the hosts previewed a week that could set the tone for the remainder of the year. LEGO's 21% first-half revenue jump and the baseball-card casino economy drawing scrutiny from Japanese regulators rounded out a wide-ranging discussion. As always, DH Unplugged delivers market intel with a skeptical, humorous edge, available at DHUnplugged.com and via Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Amazon Music/Podcasts.
